Determinants of the trend in parcel volumes in Croatia

Background: The integration of national economies into economic unions, coupled with a digital transition, has driven significant growth in parcel volumes. In recent years, parcel volumes in the Republic of Croatia have risen considerably, along with increased online purchases. This paper aims to establish the determinants influencing trends in parcel volumes to facilitate accurate forecasting of future volumes. Methods: The study employed a linear multiple regression model, with parcel volume as the dependent variable and GDP and the number of internet customers as independent variables. Model representativeness was assessed using the determination coefficient, while statistical significance was verified through the F-ratio. Results: The research revealed a consistent increase in parcel volume over the 13 years from 2010 to 2023. The model demonstrated high accuracy, accounting for 97.37% of the sum of the square of the deviation of the dependent variable. Additionally, GDP and the number of internet customers were found to have a statistically significant positive impact on parcel volume trends. Conclusion: The continued growth in the number of internet customers is a key driver of the increasing parcel volumes, which, in turn, supports the expansion of the courier, express and parcel industry. Gross domestic product (GDP) also plays a crucial role in influencing parcel volumes. Earlier research, which analysed data up to 2018, highlighted these relationships. The current study, spanning 2010 to 2023 and encompassing the COVID-19 pandemic, confirms the model’s robustness and reliability for forecasting parcel volumes, even in the face of extraordinary events.

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Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025).