Przewidywana sytuacja skażeń, czyli heurystyka w prognozowaniu

Artykuł jest częścią materiału prezentowanego na seminarium naukowym "Prognozowanie skażeń - wymiar praktyczno-teoretyczny", AON, 9.04.2009

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Contamination resulted from using weapons of mass destruction depends mainly on the kind of attack, type of agent used and many other circumstances such as for instance terrain or weather. Such a great variety of variables influencing the final picture of contamination causes that the way the contamination is evaluated will be different. Forecasting contamination, conducted before, during or after WMD attacks will be an indispensable element of such an evaluation in all cases. The most difficult case of such a forecasting is forecasting contamination, i.e. the attempt to evaluate a future state of contamination conducted before WMD attacks, in a situation when we do have almost no data concerning the place, time and kind of attacks. The article is an attempt to evaluate the usefulness and reliability of such a forecasting. The idea, aim of forecasting, types of contamination forecasting and their detailed interpretation are described. All controversies relating to forecasting contamination are thoroughly analysed and mutual relations between forecasting contamination and evaluations of risk (threat) conducted on all levels of command are defined. Additionally, an essential connection of such a forecasting with heuristic methods of problem solving is shown.