A Method for Assessing a Causation Factor for a Geometrical MDTC Model for Ship-Ship Collision Probability Estimation

In this paper a comparative method for assessing a causation factor for a geometrical model for ship-ship collision probability estimation is introduced. The results obtained from the model are compared with the results of an analysis of near-collisions based on recorded AIS data and then with the historical data on maritime accidents in the Gulf of Finland. The causation factor is obtained for three different meeting types, for a chosen location and prevailing traffic conditions there.