Exploring potential impacts of climatic variability on production of maize in Pakistan using ARDL approach

Every economic sector in the world is threatened by climate change, but the agricultural sector is especially vulnerable because of its strong dependence. That is the way this study aims to introduce the causal dynamic interactions of a vital maize food crop, fertilizer consumption as a non-climate factor, and meteorological factors in the provinces of Pakistan. The breakpoint unit root tests achieve the validity of variable stationary properties. Constant variation is imposed to demonstrate the long- and short-run autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, which is covered by the use of quarterly data from the years 2000 to 2020. The results reveal that fertilizer consumption substantially influences maize production in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; except for Sindh, it exhibits a negative connection. In Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, maize production is negatively linked with air temperature, whereas Balochistan illustrates a significant positive association. Long-term analysis noticed that the production of maize, a staple food crop, is significantly and favorably correlated with evapotranspiration in the province. At the same time, relative humidity demonstrates no relationship with maize crops in overall provinces. Rainfall over the long term shows an unfavorable and robust relationship with maize production in Pakistan’s provinces. Throughout Punjab, air temperature and relative humidity have more of an effect over the long and short terms, respectively. The fertilizer strongly influences the province of Sindh in the long run, while maize is more sensitive to air temperature in the short term. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, evapotranspiration and Balochistan’s air temperature greatly influence maize crops in the short and long term. Based on scientific evidence, inventing applicable agricultural-specific policy is made for farmers with the resilience to deal with climate influence. Significant food crop quality that can withstand increased temperatures and rainfall should be the focus of agricultural innovation and research to ensure long-term production and distribution efficiency.

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Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).