BUSINESS CYCLE IN THE ECONOMY OF POLAND. OBSERVATIONS DERIVED FROM MARKOV CHAINS (Cykl koniunkturalny w Polsce. Wnioski z modeli Markowa)

The article concentrates on the attempt to identify phases, turning points and the character of business cycle observed in Poland during 1995 - 2005. The switch-on and -off Markov models suggested by Hamilton (1989) have been applied. The obtained results indicate that during slowdown periods growth rate amounted to 2%, while during business prosperity the economy grew at the rate of 5.5% per year. Three cycles, in which similar cyclic changes in individual consumption, exports and imports as well as in inflation, have been discerned. When capital formation activities and unemployment rate are examined, the analysis points to the operation of only one cycle.