Przyrost PKB generowany w wyniku reakcji mnożnikowej w Turcji i Unii Europejskiej z tytułu ich handlu wzajemnego w latach 1996–2008

Team researches, the results of which were p resented in a shortened report, were the second attempt to empirically verify the operational multiplier model in an open economy. They deal with the multiplier effects in Turkey (formerly also Poland) and the European Union generated by their bilateral trade. In order to guarantee the comparability of the results, the same model construction and the same range of multiplier variability were used. Therefore, in both researches the numerical data necessary for the establishment of the upper multiplier limit could be based on the same statistical quantities referring to the European Union that had been published by the Eurostat. The research results make it possible to state that the multiplier process, the reality of which was questioned by the Austrian School and neo-liberalism that followed, exists in practice and its effects can be quantified. In case of Turkey, the weighted mean multiplier in the period of thirteen years was 2.69 while in the EU it was 3.35. The increase in the GDP generated by their bilateral trade in the whole examined period reached the level of 78 billion euro in Turkey and 112 billion euro in the EU. The development of the multiplier as well as the increases in the GDP shows regularities similar to those in the research into the bilateral trade between Poland and the EU.