Analiza porównawcza alternatywnych wariantów ogólnego wskaźnika koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej

An earlier study by the author presented the concept of composite indicator of business activity for Poland, based on monthly data reflecting activity levels in major sectors of the economy. The present study compares 13 alternative versions (differing in coverage and weights) of the synthetic indicator of general business activity tested by the X11-ARIMA and OECD PAT procedures. The choice of the final version is proceded by an extensive analysis of the results obtained in the tests. Using teh final operational variant of the indicator, the author reconstructs the chronology of cyclical fluctuations in the Polish economy in the period between 1975 and 1996.