CRIME AND PUNISHMENT. AN ATTEMPT TO QUANTIFY MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF CRIME IN POLAND (Zbrodnia i kara. Próba kwalifikacji makroekonomicznych uwarunkowan przestepczosci w Polsce)

Identification and quantification - on a macro-level - of factors determining crime in Poland in the years 1970-2005 was carried out in the article, with an emphasis given to the deterrence effect. The narration is illustrated with appropriate examples, with Poland being a benchmark. At the stage of equations' specification - which was supported by referring to recognized theories of crime - no initial gradation was done with respect to relative significance of possible determinants of crime, the effect of which was implementation of stepwise regression. The following types of crime were subject to investigation: (i) total, (ii) violent crimes, (iii) property crimes, (iv) other crimes, and (v) total social costs of crime. In the light of the obtained results, the causes of the increasing crime should be associated in the first place with deteriorating social development - among which economic inequality plays the leading role - as well as with lenient penitentiary policies. This cannot be counterbalanced by economic growth solely, which reduces the scale of crime.