Ukraińska pułapka na Putina

The author analyses the Ukrainian–Russian conflict, as yet unresolved. It takes into account two extreme scenarios. The first is a Russian invasion, which would start a new Cold War. Given the huge disparities between the economic potential of Russia and the West (disparities greater than in the first period of the Cold War), there is a high probability a new Cold War would lead to the defeat of Moscow within a decade. The second scenario is one in which economic reforms in Ukraine are successful in obtaining the country’s full independence from Russia. Such a development could have a serious impact on Russian society, which may start to be attracted to the Western model and disappointed with the current illusion of nationalist “mobilisation”. The author believes that Putin should not be regarded as a political strategist. His vision of “reconstruction” is something like that used during the times of the Soviet Union and seems not to have a deeper foundation than a superficial propaganda base. Putin is a politician running ad hoc policy, largely through organised provocations by security services, not only in Crimea and eastern Ukraine but also more widely, such as on the internet. The main conclusion of the article is that the recent politics practiced by Moscow are a selfensnaring trap.