Kryzys gospodarczy a kryzys rodziny – analizy symulacyjne

In the article we test the hypothesis that the weakening of family ties, as measured by reduction of marriages and a cascade of divorces, caused economic slowdown in Poland. We also suppose (second hypothesis) that the level of economic growth and welfare facilitate life for oneself, make the individuals apart thus limiting the number of marriages and resulting in increasing number of divorces. We verify these hypotheses by using an econometric model of economic growth with social equity of the family. The model consists of 9 equations (5 stochastic and 4 identities) and exhibits the feedback between GDP and some variables representing social capital, marriages disintegration ratio especially. We have run several simulation scenarios changing efficiency of enforcement of penalties, GINI coefficient, marriages disintegration ratio. We also made a forecast for Polish families disintegration in period 2009–2011 assuming different GDP growth. The results confirmed both hypotheses. In further studies we plan to verify the more complex hypothesis of the existence of an optimal GDP growth rate for the disintegration of marriages.