The Impact Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through On Serbian Export Competitiveness

The permanent existence of inflation in Serbia adversely affects achievement of macroeconomic stability. Its effects are reflected in a decrease in the real exchange rate, low price competitiveness of exports and deterioration in the balance of payments. The real exchange rate is an instrument which shows that in conditions of faster growth rate in a country than abroad, the domestic economy can't be competitive in the international market. Implementation of appropriate exchange rate regime inevitably leads to problems of exchange rate changes on import prices and inflation. The research aims to demonstrate the interdependence of inflation and depreciation, and the fact that the general price level increase is a main factor that hinders the realization of the positive effects of the national currency depreciation. Unstable monetary situation in the country undermines the goal of stimulating exports through an increase in the nominal exchange rate and by reducing export prices in foreign currency. Export becomes uncompetitive, while the depreciation of the national currency is quickly spread to inflation through the exchange rate pass-through.

Permanentno postojanje inflacije u Srbiji negativno utiče na ostvarenje makroekonomske stabilnosti. Njene posledice ogledaju se u smanjenju realnog deviznog kursa, niskoj cenovnoj konkurentnosti izvoza i pogoršanju stanja u platnom bilansu. Realni devizni kurs predstavlja instrument koji pokazuje da u uslovima bržeg rasta cena u zemlji, nego u inostranstvu, domaća privreda ne može biti konkurentna na inostranom tržištu. Implementacija adekvatnog režima deviznog kursa neminovno dovodi do problema mehanizma uticaja promene deviznog kursa na uvozne cene i inflaciju. Istraživanje ima za cilj da pokaže međuzavisnost inflacije i depresijacije, kao i to da je rast opšteg nivoa cena glavni faktor koji ometa realizaciju pozitivnih efekata depresijacije nacionalne valute. Nestabilna monetarna situacija u zemlji narušava cilj stimulisanja izvoza putem porasta nominalnog deviznog kursa, a preko smanjenja cene izvoza u stranoj valuti. Izvoz postaje cenovno nekonkurentan, dok se depresijacija nacionalne valute brzo prenosi na inflaciju preko transmisionog mehanizma deviznog kursa.