Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Propensities on Economic Occurrences: A Macroeconomic Perspective

The main aim of this article was the specification of problems connected with analysis of impact of human propensities on economic occurrences and also a proposition of econometric tools enabling the identification of this impact. According to the meaning of propensities in economics the current state of knowledge is mostly an effect of considerations presented by J.M. Keynes in his famous book "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" where J.M. Keynes proposed such economic categories as the average and marginal propensities. One of the goals of the presented deliberations was to specify problems related with economic theory of propensities. Such propensities as a propensity to consume, to save, to invest and thesaurisation were particularly carefully analysed. The impact of these propensities on basic macroeconomic variables was considered with respect to the classical model, the neoclassical Solow-Swan model and the IS-LM scheme. In case of spatial data the effects of the impact of propensities could be analysed by means of models with dummy variables showing presence of given propensities. A procedure enabling the construction of such variables was proposed. In case of time series, conceptions delivered by the integration and cointegration theory could be applied. Especially such models as VAR and VECM could be useful. Models for panel data enable direct (models with fixed effects) or indirect (models with random effects) consideration of the impact of propensities on the analysed processes.