GSIM Measurement of the Effects of the EU accession of the Balkans and Turkey on Agricultural Trade

In this paper, the global simulation model (GSIM) for the analysis of global, regional, and unilateral trade policy changes by Francois and Hall (2003) was applied to the agricultural trade between the EU, the Balkans and Turkey. This was done in order to measure the effects of an EU accession of the Balkans and Turkey. Most of the changes in welfare after a full liberalisation of agricultural trade between the Balkans and Turkey on the one hand and the EU on the other hand can be expected in the accession countries themselves. It is estimated that incumbent EU members will be affected only to a minor extent. It was also estimated that the exchange rate risk is not very high.