MODELS OF DEMAND FOR PASSENGER CARS ON THE PRIMARY MARKET IN POLAND IN YEARS 2004-2009 (Modele popytu na samochody osobowe na rynku pierwotnym w Polsce w latach 2004-2009)

Primary automotive market is very important in modern economies and their level of prosperity. As the result of global economic crisis in years 2007-2009 the richest countries in the world launched the government subsidies' programs for purchases of cars in the primary market. In Great Britain, such aid amounted to about 10 billion pounds, in France the state paid extra 1.5 thousand euros to purchase a new car and in Germany - 2.5 thousand euros, which cost country budget 5 billion euros. These actions are evidence of the importance of car sales for the country's GDP. This article presents the changes in the size and structure of demand for passenger cars in Poland in the years 2004-2009. It analyzes the causes of changes in customer interest in new vehicles on the Polish market. The author put special emphasis on the effect of coexistence of primary and secondary markets for automobiles and the indisputable importance of the level of income. He also proposed a simple econometric model that describes the impact of key determinants of demand in the primary market. Model for all examined brands and models of vehicles was estimated and interpreted. The analysis suggests that demand for new cars is a very complex phenomenon. The difficulty of analyzing this process is mainly due to the number of coexisting factors. The model allowed determining statistically significant impact of selected determinants of this demand.