Elites and Differential Development in Brazil

The author examines why some states (estados) in Brazil have developed modernizing, progressive political cultures and policies that are inclusive and pluralistic, while other neighboring states and municipalities retain traditional and oligarchic patterns of rule. The variations between estados emerge in the historical context of Brazil's decentralized political system. The central hypothesis is that contemporary politics may be traced to 19th century patterns of economic production. The long-term effects on governance that may be found in the economic orientation of different state and local economies, and, in particular, the relative vulnerability of dominant agricultural products to loss through natural catastrophe are examined. These different economic experiences enable the persistence of oligarchs in some states and the breaking of oligarchic power (and enabling of the advent of greater pluralism) in others. The central comparison is between the politically modernized state of Ceará and the more oligarchic states of Pernambuco, Paraíba, Bahia, and Maranhao. Following the work of Josenio Parente, it is argued that Ceará's economic elite was weakened over time by the collapse of cotton harvests as a result of drought, leading to more modernizing governance. Meanwhile, traditional elites in the other estados remained intact through the 19th and 20th centuries as a result of more favorable patterns of agricultural production with less vulnerability to catastrophic failure.