The Trade Potential of Infrastructure Partnerships: The Case of EU Global Gateway

The EU‘s Global Gateway Initiative seeks to create new strategic partnerships by supporting infrastructure investments around the world. While much attention has been paid to its geopolitical implications, its long-term trade potential remains unexplored. This paper analyses the potential impact on the pattern of EU imports, focusing on product groups essential for the green transition. By combining a gravity analysis of past trade flows with scenarios for future infrastructure upgrades in Global Gateway partner countries, it sheds light on the magnitude of the trade impulses to be expected. Even with optimistic expectations for infrastructure quality, the resulting direct impact on the volume and geographical structure of the EU’s trade is very small. For Global Gateway to be successful, it needs to be developed into a driver of economic growth for the partner countries, which involves the reduction of regulatory barriers to trade and cooperation in strengthening local institutions.