Wpływ wojny rosyjsko-ukraińskiej na bazę ekonomiczną ubezpieczenia społecznego w Polsce

The aim of the article is to contribute to the issue of forecasting the economic impact of the settlement of Ukrainian refugees in Poland on the social insurance economic base. The immigration wave study established the state of registered immigration in Poland as of 8 August 2022 which amounted to 1.3 million Ukrainians. The main area of research presented in this article is the recognition of changes in the potential of the labour factor in the economic base of the Polish social security system. The results of the projections of population change in Poland and the projections of the ratio of the post-working age population to the working age population without and with Ukrainians in three variants and scenarios are presented. The study shows that population changes in Poland with war refugees from Ukraine will slightly alter the level of the demographic replacement rate for the baseline scenario. However, under the most negative scenario in Ukraine, there will be a noticeable improvement in the demographic dependency ratio. An increase in the demographic burden will create growing problems for the financing of pension systems in Poland as well as in Europe as a whole.