Can You Count on Luck Without Buying a Lottery Ticket? Predictions on Obtaining Funds From the National Recovery Plan in Light of the Debate on the Rule of Law in Poland

Design/methodology/approach: A critical analysis of legal texts, namely, EU treaties, regulations, rulings of the Court of Justice, and the subsequent laws adopted at the national level in Poland. The content of the legal norms actually in force needed to be established precisely through the rules of interpretation. The analysis, in chronological order, is on the sequence of legislative activities and was combined in the study with an analysis of political discourse of the Polish government formed by the Law and Justice party (PiS) in the context of breaches of EU law. Purpose: The research focuses on actions that violate EU law in Poland in area of the rule of law in comparison with the approach taken by the EU institutions responsible for monitoring Member States’ compliance with EU law. Findings: The developed standards by EU institutions, procedures, and informal negotiation mechanisms proved to be ineffective. In addition, an application for the disbursement of funds contingent on the fulfilment of the National Reconstruction Plan’s (Krajowy Plan Odbudowy, hereafter, NRP) conditions was not submitted before the end of the government’s term in 2023, as this would have allowed the EC to formally assess the state of the rule of law in Poland, which would have had clear (financial) consequences. Research limitations/implications: The analysis was limited to the origins and the main subsequent legislative activities aggravating the state of non-compliance with the rule of law in the area of Polish judiciary during the period of the government formed in the years 2016–2023 by PiS. Originality/value: Would Poland have received funds only after completing the activities indicated in the milestones? Should we expect a change in the EU institution’s current approach to EU law violations in its relations with Member States?