NCRR - New Foresight Research Method

Joanicjusz Nazarko

Purpose of the article: Foresight constitutes a tool for building the alternative visions of the future of a studied area. The foresight research projects use both the quantitative and qualitative methods. Despite their broad spectrum, they still lack methods focused on identifying the actions designed to achieve the developed vision of development of the research area. The scientific problem is therefore to determine how and with the use of what tools it is possible to identify priority actions ultimately enabling the implementation of scenarios of development of the studied area. Scientific aim: The scientific goal is the development and verification of a new research method allowing for the identification and classification of activities making it possible to achieve the desired visions of the future of the resear area. The verification the new method of research will be conducted on the example of the most probable scenario of the development of tourism in the Podlaskie voivodship in the perspective of the year 2030, developed by a wide circle of experts and stakeholders within the framework of the implementation of the research project Foresight as a tool for improving the management of tourism in the region. Methodology/methods: The methods used to achieve the scientific objective involve desk research and the method of logic structure and analysis. The pilot study using the new method - NCRR, also used the method of a panel of experts and surveys. Findings: As a result of the undertaken research work, a new research method (NCRR) was developed and characterized. Within the framework of the pilot study, conducted with its use, the experts and stakeholders have designated the catalogue of 21 priority actions enabling the achievement of an established vision of tourism development in the perspective up to the year 2030. These activities are contained in six research areas: innovative tourism products and services; tourist entrepreneurship in the region; cultural and natural heritage; tourist infrastructure of the region; regional tourism policy; science, research and development in the region. Conclusions: The developed NCRR method represents a new tool of qualitative nature, enriching the catalogue of methods used in foresight research. Its use in the foresight research process not only allows to determine the vision of the future as before, but also makes it possible to determine real actions enabling their achievement in a specific period of time.