Developmental and economic consequences of expected population changes in the Russian Federation

Foundation for Population, Migration and Environment

This paper was prepared within the “Migration and futures of ethnic groups in the Russian Federation” (MIGRUS) research project, funded by the Foundation for Population, Migration and Environment and conducted by IOM Warsaw in the years 2011–2014. The views expressed in the paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the IOM. The author would like to express her thanks to Olga Chudinovskikh, Ekaterina Donets, Marek Kupiszewski, Dorota Kupiszewska and the CMR WP’s reviewer for their valuable comments on an earlier draft of the manuscript. All remaining mistakes are mine.

Artykuł omawia ekonomiczne i rozwojowe skutki przyszłych zmian ludnościowych w Rosji, biorąc pod uwagę zamiany demograficzne zarówno na poziomie kraju, jak i w rozbiciu na grupy etniczne. Skupia się na ich wpływie na rynek pracy, system emerytalny i gospodarkę, w tym rozwój regionalny, uwzględniając różnice między grupami etnicznymi w kwestii ich charakterystyk demograficznych i społeczno-ekonomicznych. Oddzielnie poruszona jest rola migracji międzynarodowych.

The paper discusses economic and developmental consequences of future population changes in Russia, taking into account demographic changes both on the country level and broken down by ethnic group. It focuses on their impact on the labour market, pension system and economy, including regional development, also taking into consideration differences between ethnic groups as regards their demographic and socio-economic characteristics. The role of international migration is discussed separately.