Sensitivity Analysis and Optimization for Selected Supply

The aim of our paper is to present the new results of research work on optmizaton and simulaton for some logistc problems in the company. The System Dynamics (SD) method and the Vensim simulaton language are applied in order to solve specifc managerial problems described by Forrester in the model of supply chain. The historical model of Customer-Producer-Employment System by Forrester (Forrester, 1961) has not been examined with the sensitvity analysis, from the “automatc” testng perspectve. Optmizaton experiments have not been conducted, either. It is surprising, since the model is old and widely known. The opportunites offered by the Vensim language allow us to perform such analysis. The visualizaton called “confdence bounds“ is used, to show the behaviour of chosen variables over a period of tme. The Monte-Carlo method is applied for sampling a set of numbers from within bounded domains (distributon for each searching parameters is specifed). The authors of this paper conducted numerous experiments in this scope. This paper presents their results and offers some conclusions formulated at the end.