Wpływ pandemii COVID-19 na dług publiczny w Polsce i Europie. Czy wystąpił efekt zapadkowy?

Introduction and aim: The aim of this article is to assess how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the level and com-position of public debt in Poland and six selected EU member states between 2018 and 2023, and to test the hypothesis that the crisis triggered a ratchet effect in public spending. Research methodology: The study combines a critical review of the literature with an exploration of Eurostat ESA/COFOG data, focusing on shifts in the debt-to-GDP ratio and reallocations across the ten budgetary functions. Results and implications: The results show that in 2020 the average public-debt-to-GDP ratio rose by 12.1 percent-age points, while Poland’s increase—11.4 points—was below the EU mean, yet Poland was the only country where the upward trend persisted beyond 2021. in the studied countries and across the European Union as a whole, government spending, after a phase of rapid growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, began to decline but did not return to the 2018 baseline. The phenomenon persisted most vividly in the “economic affairs” and “health” functions. Poland’s use of off-budget vehicles (PFR and BGK) limited the surge in the central government deficit in 2020, but the related costs were ultimately captured in ESA statistics in 2021–2022. Conclusion: The key conclusion is that the post-pandemic ratchet effect was selective, concentrating on the two expenditure categories that proved most critical during the crisis.