Debiasing numerical verdicts and judicial discretion : reflections on mitigating the anchoring effect in judicial decision-making

The process of rendering numerical legal verdicts, such as non-economic damages or prison terms, is as common in legal systems, as it is inconsistent and erratic. The undue variability and unpredictability of numeric outcomes of legal proceedings may be a result of cognitive biases such as the anchoring effect. If anchors affecting verdicts are legally irrelevant, they might lead judges and jurors astray. In this chapter, we review debiasing methods proposed in the literature to mitigate the anchoring effect in order to evaluate their effectiveness and applicability to the legal system. Then, we focus on an issue often neglected when it comes to the application of debiasing measures in law, namely the concept of judicial discretion. We argue that in cases in which judges are not aware of the biasing factors, they may not exercise their discretion properly. We try to assess which debiasing methods may make the process of rendering numerical verdicts more reasonable and predictable without necessarily eliminating the element of discretion in contexts where its preservation is deemed worthwhile.