Conflict or conciliation? : the Polish elections of 2023 and their consequences for the EU

On 15 October Poland will hold parliamentary elections and the result will be decisive for the democratic future of the country as well as its role in the European Union. The two main parties competing for victory are the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS), which has been in power with the support of smaller coalition partners since 2015, and centreright Civic Platform (PO), which was in power from 2007 to 2015. The emergence of nationalist and Eurosceptic Confederation party could also influence the result: they may have the balance of power in the new parliament. The elections are a clash of two visions for Poland’s future in Europe. PiS, accused of autocratic tendencies and dismantling liberal democracy, is an advocate of the intergovernmental model of European cooperation and limiting of power of the EU institutions. In contrast Civic Platform and its partners declare that, should they win the elections, Poland will return to the European arena as a constructive partner and support further integration. Polish society is highly polarized, the PiS and Civic Platform electorates are rather stable, and the outcome will be determined by undecided voters for whom emotions as well as utilitarian interests play an important role in the final choice.